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Can we predict the price of gold until 2030?

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Many investors who are interested in gold as an investment value wonder on what scope to trade it on. Although this asset is sometimes profitable over the long term, it's important to know how to correctly anticipate its future fund trends over the long term. So, you can wonder what the price of gold would be in ten years, meaning in 2030.  
Can we predict the price of gold until 2030?
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Interesting expectations on the price of gold over the next years:

Before looking at what the price of gold could be in 2030, you should first discover how the most renowned analysts foresee this value and its progression for the years to come.

Recently, the Swiss banking group UBS released an analysis that reports a very positive expectation of the price of gold by 2023. It's true that the past few months have been quite promising regarding the precious yellow metal which has earned many dollars since the significant drop it suffered in 2018. According to UBS, the price of the precious yellow metal shouldn’t stop there and should climb further by the end of 2019 with a rather strong and unexpected uptrend.

However, and despite a probable rapid increase by the end of this year, the following years will, according to this analyst source, be more modest in terms of volatility with less surprising movements. Therefore we should see a continuous rise in the price of this asset until 2023 just as it should be the case for certain other precious metals such as silver or platinum which also show a significant correlation with gold. We will, however, put into perspective the forecasts for silver, which depends largely on demand from industrial applications and which could be strongly influenced by global economic health.

Unfortunately, the forecasts made by UBS do not go beyond this period of a few years and don't tell us what the price of gold is likely to be in 2030, just over 10 years from now. For this, we'll need to rely on our own analyses.


How to predict the price of gold in 2030 as effectively as possible?

Although you may already have a relatively clear idea of the possibilities for the evolution of the price of gold in the coming years, forecasting your investment over 10 years is a little more complex and it's obviously currently too early to predict precisely where the price of the precious yellow metal will be in 2030.

You'll need to keep yourself informed about possible future forecasts of large financial organizations in the months and years to come to tilt the odds in your favour. You can of course also count on your own analytical capacity and learn to anticipate the future variations of this asset. To do so, you need to master the various factors and elements which can have a direct influence on the price of this raw material. This analysis will allow you to generally identify good short-term trends as well as an understanding of how this asset is likely to behave in the medium term.

It goes without saying that a proper forecast on the price of gold is a somewhat difficult exercise which requires some experience. Experts in the field are very popular with institutional investors and for good reason as they have the experience and knowledge necessary to establish more or less reliable forecasts. We know that, due to its volatility and extreme sensitivity to other markets, gold remains one of the most complex values to analyse in the medium and long term. However, it is possible to determine short-term trends more precisely and more reliably. What we're about to explain may not allow you to identify how the price of gold will develop by 2030 today  but will allow you to make a relatively interesting and convincing forecast for the next 5 years.

The only reliable data when we analyse future developments in the price of gold is the production of the metal. We know that, whatever happens, gold is a rare metal of which the quantity available increases very slowly and predictably. This scarcity and production limit of the precious yellow metal causes a significant increase in the price of the ounce when the world demand increases, which is logical because it's impossible to increase the production of gold in order to tackle demand.


What are the different indicators for analysing the price of gold in the medium term?

In addition to fixed and known data on gold production capacities, it's important to analyse other influencing factors if you want to invest in gold in the medium term. Experts also use these same indicators to carry out their forecasts as well as various elements considered to be reliable.

First of all, the behaviour of central banks is taken into account. The decisions made by these banks have a considerable influence in the movements of the price of gold. It's therefore the first element that you should use for your fundamental analyses of this value. We know that when certain central banks such as the central banks of emerging countries increase their demand for gold, this leads to an increase in the price of this value in the short term. As a country develops and its central bank possesses limited gold compared to other organizations in developed countries such as the European and American central banks, its objective will be to increase its reserves for years following.

You should also take into account the monetary policy led by the FED or American Federal Reserve which is the central bank of the United States and which has powerful influence on this value. As demonstrated by the history of gold in recent decades, the evolution of interest rates set by this official body has a direct influence on the price of this precious metal. When the Fed decides to raise interest rates, the price of gold most often drops. But what's the relationship between gold and the US monetary policy due to? In reality, you need to understand that the price of gold is quoted in US dollars. This means that when the dollar has a strong interest rate, it attracts investors, which increases its value and makes gold less attractive because it's more expensive for investors buying it with other currencies.

Other gold analysts carry out their forecasts using other, more surprising types of assets, such as stock markets. And this method isn't due to chance since a negative correlation between the price of raw materials such as gold and the share price on the stock market is often observed. You'll notice that when the price of shares drops, that of gold tends to go up and can go on over fifteen or twenty year cycles. You'll find some online sources allowing you to confirm this hypothesis with a comparison of gold prices with the price of major stock indices such as the S&P 500 which takes into account 500 companies listed on the American stock market and demonstrate this negative correlation.

In conclusion, remember that it's impossible to predict what the price of gold will be in 10 years, in 2030. If you find websites promising such forecasts, you should be wary because even the best analysts are unable to do so as the data to be taken into account is fluctuating and unpredictable. Also, if you want to invest in gold over several years, you will need to keep an eye on your positions and carry out frequent and convincing analyses of the various fundamental and technical indicators at your disposal so as not to miss any upward or downward trend. Don't forget the technical analysis of this value which remains one of the main inspirations for the positions of investors from around the world.

Frequently Asked Questions

How to analyse the price of gold over the short term?

Concerning movements in the gold price over the short term, over a few weeks to be more precise or even just a few hours, it is often recommended to complete a comprehensive technical analysis of this commodity by carefully choosing the chart’s timeline. As gold is a highly speculative and volatile asset this method would be the primary choice to use but not necessarily the only one and is actually best combined with a fundamental analysis.

How to speculate on the gold price without buying it?

It is not necessary to physically buy gold coins or bars to invest in this commodity. In fact, when you want to take advantage of the variations in the price of gold, you can use an online CFD platform provided by a broker, which will give you the opportunity to speculate on the rise and fall of this value by taking a position on the direction in which you think the trend will take.

Which indicators should you favour for an analysis of the gold price?

To try and understand how the price of gold could react over the medium or long term you should use a maximum of fundamental and technical indicators. You should therefore proceed with a chart analysis of this asset’s price and also consult all relevant information available through news, events and publications either directly or indirectly related to this asset.

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